DEEPER U.S. INVOLVEMENT: Don’t be surprised if you wake up one morning to read in the papers that Basilan and Zamboanga are swarming with US military personnel numbering more than the touted 600 or so under the present Balikatan joint military exercise.

We don’t know if US President George W. Bush has told President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, but it is becoming clear to us that the White House regards the Balikatan in the South as more than the usual annual war games under the RP-US Visiting Forces Agreement.

It seems to us that the US involvement in the operation against a bunch of kidnappers and bandits — terrorists to the Americans — will go beyond the level of advising Philippine military personnel, lending them night-vision goggles and taking them on helicopter rides.

We see US Special Forces eventually getting involved in pursuing any terrorist gang operating on Basilan — and even beyond if they try escaping to nearby island after firing at the Americans.

(That leak about Abu Sayyaf leaders supposedly slipping through the cordon and escaping from Basilan by boat looked like the military was already laying the basis for a wider field of operation, but it did not quite catch on.)

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ENTERING SECOND STAGE: Listen to Bush discuss what he called the second stage of the fight against global terrorism — the campaign to deny sanctuary to terrorists.

In a speech at the South Lawn of the White House on the six-month anniversary of the Sept. 11 terror attacks on the US, Bush said:

“I have set a clear policy in the second stage of the war on terror. America encourages and expects governments everywhere to help remove the terrorist parasites that threaten their own countries and peace of the world.(Applause) If governments need training, or resources to meet this commitment, America will help.

“We are helping right now in the Philippines, where the terrorists with links to Al Qaeda are trying to seize the southern part of the country to establish a militant regime. (Underlining ours) They are oppressing local peoples, and have kidnapped both American and Filipino citizens.

“America has sent more than 500 troops to train Philippine forces. We stand with President Arroyo, who is courageously opposing the threat of terror.”

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ABUS PLAIN BANDITS?: Government propaganda has dwelled on the kidnapping and banditry of the Abu Sayyaf and played down any hint that the kidnap gang was moved by political ideology or fired by some religious fervor in its depredations.

The ideological color of the unrest in the South is identified more with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and, earlier, the Moro National Liberation Front from which the MILF sprung.

Abu Sayyaf leaders have not had the time to give themselves some kind of political aura, an ideology perhaps that could give their violent agenda a firmer and politically legitimate basis for its continuing defiance of the authorities.

So when Bush talked of terrorists in Southern Philippines trying to seize a corner of the country and establish a militant regime, he would most likely be taken to be referring to the MILF and all the militant Muslim subsets around it.

It was possible that Bush was supposed to refer to the Abu Sayyaf since he mentioned the kidnapping of Americans, but in his simplification of the situation, he most likely bunched in his mind the Abu Sayyaf and all other military groups (including the MILF and possibly the MNLF) with avowed secessionist objectives.

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ABU, MILF LUMPED TOGETHER: The MILF may have sensed this wider perspective of the warlike American president, and made efforts to point out that it was still on a ceasefire with the government and that it had legitimate political grievances and some kind of respectability.

That explanation of the MILF is not likely to register with the Bush war room which has started to paint a picture of the world that is stark black and white with no gray in-between.

We think the US avengers, with Bush giving the pep talk, are liable to lump together the Abu Sayyaf, the MILF, the MNLF and any Muslim group that could be linked to Al Qaeda by the relentless US sleuths.

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EXTIRPATING THE ROOTS: The great American exertion in the South is not in proportion to the basic problem if the target is just the rescue of an American missionary couple held by the Abu Sayyaf.

It cannot be that the US Special Forces now mightily gearing up on Basilan will just stage a lighting strike one moonless night, rescue the US couple, then depart for another anti-terrorist mission elsewhere.

Judging from the way Bush has described the problem, he does not have in mind mere police action that fields a posse led by a US sheriff to track down, shoot down them dirty varmints, and rescue somebody being held against his will.

The roots of the global Al Qaeda terrorist network have to be extirpated (to borrow a forceful term from the dictator Marcos discussing the communist threat of his time). That cannot be done by the short-term limited-scope Balikatan. There must be a bigger agenda.

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FIRST WARNING SHOT: They keep telling us that the US soldiers will not lead sorties or go on their own search and destroy missions, but will just be around to give suggestions. We can’t imagine how that could be done under the circumstances. Anyway….

Oh yes, they say that the GIs will fire back if fired upon. But of course.

Reminds us of the wizened advice of our policemen friends that if we happen to shoot a bad guy in the street (say a snatcher, a mugger or some maniac molesting a lady), we should make sure we fire at least two shots even if one shot is enough to immobilize the target.

One shot must be in the air. It does not matter if that was the first or the last shot, or which shot hit the victim.

The reason is that if a case turns up in court (we never can tell, what with jobless lawyers all over the place), we were supposed to tell the judge that we first fired a warning shot in the air, but the guy lunged at us, and so we had to shoot. Even witnesses will have to say that there were two shots.

This line may be useful to the US soldiers who have entered the fray with orders to shoot only if shot at. They can always fire the first shot, then be shot at.

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NEW DEAL FOR PINOY SAILORS: Damage has been done, and two California congressmen seek to repair it. They have introduced a measure seeking to exempt family members of Filipinos who had served in the US Navy from immigration rules that penalize them.

Amendments to US immigration laws have placed on deferred status the spouses and children of Filipino servicemen in the US Navy seeking to be either immigrants or US citizens.

While waiting, many of them have been forced to work and accrue bad time that jeopardized their application for immigrant status or citizenship.

Reps. Randy Cunningham (Rep.) and Robert Filner (Dem.) filed last March 7 House Bill No. 3906 titled “Military Families Unification Act of 2002.” It would exempt spouses and children of Filipino servicemen in the navy from certain bars to admission and relief under the Immigration and Nationality Act.

One provision of the bill says: “No period of time during which an alien is a qualifying relative of a Philippine enlistee shall be taken into account in determining the period of unlawful presence in the US.”

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RELIEF FROM C.A. NOISE: Mercifully, the Lenten break in congressional deliberations has intervened. We have been drowning in press releases, email and various papers either for or against the confirmation of Environment Secretary Heherson Alvarez by the Commission on Appointments.

On most days, more than half of our emailbox was clogged with items either denouncing or praising Alvarez. It was not just a noisy, but also an expensive propaganda battle. Now at least we’re enjoying a little respite.

Our last sighting of Alvarez was of him clinging on to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, his head bobbing in the turbulent waters of the CA confirmation process. The betting game is on whether or not GMA will reappoint him after his having been considered bypassed.