NEW YORK – What will make Gloria Macapagal Arroyo run for president in 2004? There is one simple answer to that: She will run for president only if she is convinced that there is a clear chance for her to win.

Her running will not depend on a “public clamor,” or millions of signatures, or the anointment by Cardinal Sin, or the support of former Presidents Aquino and Ramos.

While these factors are important to her arriving at a decision, the crucial element is if at the cutoff date the in-house surveys and the running condition of the political machinery point to a clear victory.

So-called “public clamors” can be nothing but hollow echoes, the redolent rallies of supporters stage-managed, signatures forged. Poll survey results can be tailor-made to suit the designs of a paying client. And endorsements, while encouraging, do not always translate into winning swing votes.

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ONE QUESTION: So at the moment of truth, which is the still-secret cutoff date for GMA to make the decision, the nervous candidate will ask herself only one question: Do I have a good chance of winning?

If the in-house surveys say “no,” Gloria will have to fall back on her declaration of Dec. 30, 2002, that she was abandoning all presidential pretensions. She can then just try metamorphosing into an elder statesman upon whom history might yet look with kindness.

But if the answer is “yes, there is a clear chance of victory,” she will need neither prodding nor an excuse to go back on her word. Victory is its own luscious excuse for running.

Once the decision is made, the public clamor, the rallies, the signatures, the survey results and the endorsements will then materialize — to justify her decision to run in 2004 despite her saying previously that she won’t.

The rest will then fall into place.

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DANDING OPTION: If GMA were no longer running, we would not be surprised if she endorsed Tarlac politico Eduardo Cojuangco as the administration-opposition coalition candidate for president.

As we see it, Mrs. Arroyo and her husband Mike would prefer a president-successor willing to cover their tracks after they step out of Malacanang. Who could it be?

Former Education Secretary Raul Roco does not look the type who would be willing to mop up after a president whose Cabinet he had left in disgust. Not only is Roco for Roco. He is also for letting the chips fall where they may.

Malacanang, btw, has gone out of its way to deny that former President Ramos has endorsed an Arroyo-Roco team for the 2004 presidential election.

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COCO COMPROMISE: On the other hand, Cojuangco, the godfather of the San Miguel food and beverage empire, is known as a man with a firm hand and firm commitments.

If (for the sake of discussion) Cojuangco promised the Arroyos to protect them if he became president, we think he would keep his promise. More so if President Arroyo did him a favor now that he is out looking in.

One thing the President can do for him, if she has not done it yet, is to approve an omnibus settlement of the coconut levy question that would be fair to Cojuangco.

By fair, we mean that Cojuangco, the architect of the multi-billion-peso scheme known as the coco levy fund, would be allowed to keep a reasonable chunk of the sequestered assets while giving the rest to the government, after setting aside something for the boys.

There is a move to draft Cojuangco as the common presidential candidate of a coalition of elements of administration and opposition parties.

We’re not inclined to believe reports that Malacanang has been harassing Cojuangco’s businesses in view of his imminent candidacy. We see Cojuangco as a potential ally of Mrs. Arroyo.

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PUBLIC CONDITIONING: Meantime, even the opposition is doing GMA a favor – perhaps unwittingly — by noisily protesting the seeming inevitability of her running for president in 2004 despite her having said she had dropped such a plan.

By harping on it, the opposition is actually helping condition the public mind to Mrs. Arroyo’s announcing in due time her presidential bid. She might just oblige, and make true the opposition’s prediction.

The President’s chief of staff Rigoberto Tiglao said on TV days ago that Mrs. Arroyo may run if the “national interest” calls for it. But of course! Anybody can say that anytime.

Tiglao need not strain himself keeping alive the speculation about his boss’s political plans. The opposition is already doing a creditable job of it.

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ERAP SETBACK: At the Sandiganbayan, meanwhile, the legal options of former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada are dwindling as he lost another bid to prevent or at least delay further his trial for plunder charges.

The anti-graft court dismissed for lack of merit his motion that the charges be dropped because he, claiming to be still president, is immune from being tried on criminal charges before any court.

Mr. Estrada’s lawyers may yet find in this an opening to run to the Supreme Court to appeal the Sandiganbayan’s ruling and thereby be able to pose again to the tribunal the question over the legitimacy of the Arroyo presidency.

The high court is expected, like the Sandiganbayan, to rule against Mr. Estrada. But even with that, the former president would have gained another delay in his trial that potentially could result in a death sentence.

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U.S. HAND SOUGHT: In Washington, DC, we heard that opposition Sen. Aquilino Pimentel has surfaced with his proposal to have the US broker a peace settlement in war-ravaged Muslim Mindanao. He had aired the same proposal in Manila, but got no encouraging response.

Pimentel cited the many conflicts in other hot spots wherein the US had succeeded in bringing the protagonists to agree to peace settlements. The latest settlement arranged through the good offices of the US is the road map to peace accepted by Palestine and Israel.

“It’s time we invoked the assistance of the only superpower in world today not to go to war in Mindanao but to broker the peace,” he said.

He cited past efforts to use of the good offices of outside parties in the search for peace in Mindanao. Among those tapped previously were Saudi Arabia, Libya, Indonesia and the Organization of the Islamic Conference.

Malaysia, a neighbor and co-member in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is the latest member of the Islamic bloc to offer its good offices in talks between the Philippine government and the secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

It is not clear where or to whom Pimentel plans to formally present his suggestion in Washington. The US is expected to be disposed to listen more to a proposal of President Arroyo than to that of a traveling senator.