ST. LOUIS, Missouri – Now the Bush administration is fanning supposed intelligence reports that Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein is most probably alive somewhere.

But of course! Even assuming the man is in fact dead, White House propaganda at this point has to keep Saddam, or at least speculation over his fate, alive.

Reelectionist President George W. Bush needs that convenient hate-object more than the $2,000 hamburgers served recently to raise megabucks for his 2004 election campaign.

It would be fatal for Bush to allow his war on Iraq fade out of the consciousness of American voters getting increasingly worried over the bad performance of the economy under the Republicans.

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ECONOMIC HOLE: With the war propping up his rating at the polls, it seems that the only hole left to be plugged in preparation for the 2004 election is the sluggish economy. Bush knows that, so he now goes around saying that the economy will soon pick up.

We’ve asked academics, businessmen, think tankers and journalists here and in Washington, DC, if they share the avowed optimism of their President for an economic upturn.

Seeing no encouraging indicators so far, majority of them are skeptical, although they are naturally hoping for a break in the dark clouds.

As for the folk back home, we see most Filipinos latching on to Mr. Bush’s promise of better times ahead. The Philippine economy is known generally to follow the ups and downs of the US market by a time lag of at least six months.

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FALSE PROSPERITY: When we’re asked here about the state of the Philippine economy and can’t squirm out of it, we’re forced to talk of the not too encouraging indicators.

But we quickly add that things are likely to perk up toward yearend and significantly improve next year. Expecting the stimulating effects of election spending, we announce false prosperity coming up in the first semester of 2004.

Immediately the next question is if President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is running. We say without batting an eyelash that of course she is. Who can ever miss her body language and her followers’ falling over one another to give the best argument for her running?

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GMA RUNNING FAVORED: Might as well disclose at this point our stand on this question of GMA possibly running. Everything considered, we favor her seeking a direct mandate from the people in the May 2004 election.

Our basic reason is: Her running will end once and for all the counterproductive debate over the legitimacy of her presidency. If the sovereign people directly gives her or denies her the presidency, that should settle the question.

But the question is already pending in court? The Supreme Court may either act with dispatch and close the debate with a final ruling, or evade the issue by allowing the case to drag until it is overtaken by the 2004 election.

We’re sorry to observe that even a decision of the full Supreme Court will not settle the problem with finality since the predisposition of a number of the justices vis-à-vis the case is under question.

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ERAP BOMB: The case could grow more complicated when (if) Mr. Joseph Ejercito Estrada – still smarting from his unceremonious ouster from Malacanang – drops another bomb in the Supreme Court and the Sandiganbayan hearing plunder charges against him.

Expect Mr. Estrada, now detained at the Veterans Memorial Medical Center in Quezon City, to present before the court and/or the public legal documents purporting to show that he just went on leave on Jan. 20, 2001, and temporarily turned over the presidency to then Vice President Arroyo.

The documents consist of two identical letters, one sent to the House of Representatives and another to the Senate, signed on Malacanang stationery by Mr. Estrada as president. They bear the presidential seal and the bar code stamped on important correspondence from the Office of the President.

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ACTING PRESIDENT?: Both letters are dated Jan. 20, 2001, his last day in office before, according to him, going on leave. And – this is important — both letters are stamped received by the House and the Senate.

Why do we know these things? Because we have seen, held, examined and read the two documents.

If the letters satisfy all legal requirements to make them valid and binding, it seems to us that we now have two presidents – one a president on leave and another an acting president.

The “acting president” angle is made more interesting with Mrs. Arroyo having been captured on film at her oath-taking at Edsa on Jan. 20, 2001, saying that she was taking her oath as “acting president.”

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IF ERAP RETURNS: The term “acting president” has a precise legal meaning from which the protagonists cannot escape in the normal course of things.

When the president is permanently unable or unwilling to discharge his duties as president – like if he dies or is permanently incapacitated — the vice president BECOMES the president via a set constitutional process.

But when the inability is temporary, as when the president is temporarily absent or unable to fully discharge his duties, the vice president merely steps in as ACTING PRESIDENT during the absence of the president.

Comes now an explosive possibility. Suppose Mr. Estrada decides to end what he calls his vacation and again writes formally to both chambers of Congress informing them that he was ending his leave/vacation and was resuming his discharge of his duties as president?

Such a scenario is a hair-trigger for chaos.

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PREEMPTIVE STRIKE: The great US of A is also embroiled in a debate — over the invasion of Iraq, which has taken the lives of at least 50 more American soldiers after the declaration of US victory and supposed end of hostilities last May 1.

But one difference is that while many of them disagree with the reasons given by Mr. Bush for the war, or even with the basic idea of going to war in the first place, once the troops were deployed, Americans played down their partisan biases, closed ranks and rallied behind the boys and, by extension, the commander-in-chief.

They had been hit and hit badly – and could be hit again. If preemptive strike is the logical response to the continuing terrorist threat, most Americans are willing to do it whatever the rest of the world thinks.

Such a patriotic and realistic approach to war for self-preservation is reflected in surveys confirming the bipartisan support for the campaign and for Mr. Bush’s handling of the situation.

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IT’S THE ECONOMY: One interesting detail to watch for, however, is if Americans will recast their views as the war recedes farther into the horizon, and anxieties are smoothed out with the promised recovery of the economy.

It is obvious at this point that Mr. Bush will become increasingly reelection-driven. He will have to work out a peaceful conclusion to the war before the conflict devours more Americans lives and resources that should go to domestic essential services.

Or, having seen the political value of war jitters uniting the population behind their leader, Mr. Bush might be tempted to try nurturing – until he clinches reelection`– a manageable level of fear of another possible attack reminiscent of the Sept. 11, 2001, attack that took more than 3,000 lives at the World Trade Center towers in New York.

But war alone may not be able to sustain and consolidate support for him. He will have to address the economy, massaging it back to health and putting more money in the hands of Americans.