POLL TRAGEDY: The tragedy of the May 2004 presidential election is not that another actor or showbiz icon might come out winner, but that the exercise might lack the credibility that the winner will need to unite and lead the country.

It will be a costly exercise not only in terms of lives to be lost in bloody fashion, but also in light of the P5 billion that will be thrown into an election that might only set the stage for a civil strife from which we might not be able to recover.

These are not idle thoughts. At the rate the Commission on Elections has been bungling the registration of voters and other preliminaries, we see a failure of election a clearer possibility.

If the Comelec cannot even handle a preliminary step as basic as the listing of voters over several months, what more of a complicated nationwide undertaking involving some 40 million warm bodies milling around to cast their votes in just one day!

The Comelec is bravely facing the challenge with a gargantuan P3-billion “modernization” (simply meaning the use of computers) of the election process.

But that is precisely the point. The alleged modernization, touted as a solution, is actually part of the problem.

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MACHINES FAIL TEST: The painfully slow and confused registration of new, inactive and displaced voters is a preview of what awaits us on Election Day, when voters troop to the polls in large numbers.

Comelec chairman Ben Abalos himself demonstrated recently to a group of newsmen the registration process using a computerized machine that “captures” the personal data of individuals stepping forward to register.

The demo was an excruciatingly slow process, an ominous preview of what could happen in May 2004.

Some of the sophisticated machines bought at fantastic prices were also tested elsewhere for sustained reliability. Half of them reportedly conked out. The heat was blamed for the embarrassment. But, we don’t have air-conditioning in most parts of the country!

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LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS: Many observers comment that the problem is basically one of lack of funds.

With our deficit of P200 billion expected this year, where do we get the P5 billion needed to see the election to a successful conclusion? (The P5 billion bill we keep citing is the total of P2 billion for the election proper and P3 billion for the so-called modernization.)

Some government agencies, we heard, are being asked to forced-save from their budget so a substantial amount can be pooled and given to the Comelec to work its way through the funding shortage.

But why force ourselves to cough up P3 billion for an election that might just become the trigger to an internecine conflict that could spell the end to this suffering republic? That’s too expensive a coffin.

Why don’t we live within our means? Let’s not over-extend ourselves — only to lose everything in the end.

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HARDWARE: If we don’t have the P3 billion for “modernization,” why do we have to buy and install computers and accessories all over the country for the 2004 polls? Why don’t we just buy what we can afford and procure the rest when we have the money for future elections?

With our modest means, we should pilot the computerization only in Metro Manila, urban centers and selected towns and provinces. The limited scope will lend this first stage of “modernization” to closer monitoring and reprogramming.

Putting in one leg at a time will enable us to step right back if we realize we’ve overstepped. Let the machines first prove themselves in a controlled space before we buy the whole lot and throw away P3 billion.

If the machines pass the test of the 2004 election, then we can consider getting more of them. Actually, by that time (post 2004), newer and more reliable machines would have been introduced.

Obsolescence is another point. Why do we have to buy and get stuck with computers that will be obsolete even before the votes are counted? Why don’t we just lease the equipment and enjoy the option of getting better models for the next elections?

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SOFTWARE: We plead with Comelec officials who seem to have fallen for the “modernization” trap and point out that hardware is just one of the elements for the success of a computerized process.

Assuming the Comelec has the best electoral gadgets installed throughout the country on Election Day, that is still no guarantee that the exercise will be a success.

Aside from the hardware, we have to ensure that we have the correct software and competent peopleware to complete the triad.

Is the software for the computers fail-proof? Is it tamper proof? Will it work under the trying conditions in the far-flung provinces?

The opposition is sure to ask also: How do we know if the program does not have a secret command to add a small inconspicuous number every time the votes for Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (and its registered variations) are entered?

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PEOPLEWARE: Assuming our hardware and software are reliable, tamper-proof and can pass the severe test of a live nationwide election, how about our peopleware?

We may have the best machines that money can buy (assuming we have that kind of money), but what about the people who must be organized, motivated, trained and equipped for operating, maintaining and servicing all the machines throughout the archipelago?

We do not see much being done in this crucial people department.

The billions we will spend to buy hardware and software will go to waste if we do not have the corresponding peopleware to match them.

Against the P3 billion we are spending for machines, how much are we spending for the more important element of people?

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OFF WITH THE LOOT: We ask these basic questions before we plunge into the “modernization” cliff. Hopefully we are giving our officials, particularly Comelec bosses, enough time to reflect and possibly step back. Or rethink the whole experiment.

We shudder at the thought that some officials actually do not care about credible elections as long as they get their fat commission from the purchase of tons of machines whose presence gives a false front of modernity to a process crawling with bugs.

It does not seem to matter to some people if the Comelec and its expensive machines fail to deliver a credible election in 2004. Some operators are ready to just scoop up the money and fly on the earliest flight out of the country when trouble erupts.

At bahala na tayong mga pobreng matitira dito sa Pinas.

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EXPERIMENT: We deliberately use the term “experiment” to describe what we are doing, because the truth is that this is nothing but an experiment. This is the first time we are doing this on this big scale with so little preparation.

Having failed to pilot it, we don’t know how it would fare under intense and sustained stress.

The problem is that if it fails, and it is likely to fail, there will be no second time. If the 2004 elections fail, there is no Take 2. Magkakagulo na!

If President Arroyo wants and expects to win in 2004, she better make sure she is going to win in a credible election. Otherwise, she would find herself presiding over a country exploding on her face.

The opposition can do no less. If they have to win, and they want to, they have to win in a credible election. For the same reason we gave for GMA.