PROXY WAR: We doubt if former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada will run for reelection in 2004 as he threatened to do after President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared days ago her own candidacy. His knees won’t allow him.

What we see shaping up is a proxy fight for the former president licking his wounds in the presidential suite of the Veterans Memorial Medical Center in Quezon City.

If opposition sources are to be believed, Erap has been allowed by his loyalists a virtual free hand in choosing the opposition standard bearer and suggesting who should be on the senatorial slate.

And at the rate some of the opposition heavyweights are falling by the wayside, Erap’s bosom friend Fernando Poe Jr., da king of Philippine movies, has started to loom bigger as Erap’s ultimate answer to GMA.

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FPJ IS TOP BET: The name of the game is Victory. And since it is victory that the opposition badly wants, its choice of standard bearer has been narrowing fast to popular action star FPJ.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson, the fightingest of opposition warriors, is so badly wounded in his tangle with the shadowy Jose Pidal. The combined demolition forces of the Arroyo administration and The Firm are proving to be too much for the former policeman.

Businessman Eduardo Cojuangco, one of those thought to pose a serious challenge to GMA, is now reported as packing up his election gear after wangling a favorable court decision giving him back 20 percent of San Miguel Corp. shares being claimed by him.

Don’t laugh, but that leaves FPJ standing as the opposition’s most viable candidate. No wonder Erap is reportedly redoubling his efforts to convince his friend to run “for the sake of the country.”

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KABAYAN WAITS: The felling of some of the supposed presidential timber has pushed broadcaster Noli “Kabayan” de Castro, the consistent topnotcher in all poll surveys, to the limelight.

He has enough following to be able to ask for the opposition’s draft on a silver platter in case FPJ makes the sensible decision not to clutter further the political landscape.

De Castro, who is sometimes humble enough to admit his limitations, may decide to await his turn at the presidency by first running as vice president in 2004 — to GMA’s presidency — and spend six years as understudy at the Palace.

It seems there’s nothing we can do about it. One day we will have to watch Kabayan intoning “Magandang Gabi, Bayan,” his legs crossed in his usual gross manner, from the Palace junto al Pasig.

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SANTA COMING: If Cojuangco does not run, that will be a good development for GMA. If he and his Nationalist People’s Coalition throw their support behind her despite Ernesto Maceda, that is even better for her.

With a bloodied Lacson being pummeled back to a corner with a barrage of legal combinations, that is betterer.

And if former Cabinet member Raul Roco is unable to whip up sufficient money and machinery and decides not to run, that is even more betterer. (But as of press time, Roco sounded like he was bent on running — for president, not as teammate of GMA.)

Overall, GMA seems to be picking up. No wonder the opposition is going berserk denouncing her taking back her Rizal Day declaration not to run. Her change of mind has swept away the cobwebs clouding the war room of the administration coalition.

To the faithful and to the starved politicos in the provinces looking for a wagon heavy with goodies to latch on, GMA’s announcement sounded like Santa’s sleigh bells in the air. The administration and its supporters are alive again.

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P5-B COFFIN: The problem nagging us, however, is how to ensure the integrity and credibility of the 2004 national and local elections considering that the Commission on Elections is tied up in legal and technical knots.

While the clock ticks, Comelec still has to defend before the Supreme Court its award of a P1.6-billion contract to a hastily formed group offering equipment for the computerized counting and reporting of the votes in 2004.

Together with the registration and validation of voters that supposedly costs a staggering P1 billion plus the election itself with a bloated outlay of P2 billion, the Comelec is set to throw some P5 billion to its 2004 experiment in computerized elections.

We see indications (Postscript, 09Oct2003) that the Comelec is not ready to ensure the integrity of the process. If the credibility of the 2004 elections is put in question by serious administrative and technical failures, civil strife might erupt.

Whoever wins in such a dubious election may not be able to govern at all.

The Comelec must allay fears that we are scrounging around for P5 billion to spend for our own funeral as a nation.

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GIN WAR: Ginebra San Miguel is asking Tanduay Distillers to help speed up the disposition of the P100-million suit for alleged trademark infringement and unfair competition, as well as Tanduay’s P112-million counter-suit for damages.

It is to the interest of everybody, except of course the lawyers, that these cases come to a quick conclusion.

A speedy resolution could help better educate the market on the fine points of intellectual property laws, free enterprise, monopolies as well as the boundaries of competition in an open market.

What we are seeing unfold is not so much a debate on which one is the better product: Ginebra San Miguel or Ginebra Kapitan. Rather, we are witnessing an intensifying clash between the cause of free competition and the principles of intellectual property rights.

Tanduay says Ginebra cannot claim exclusive rights on the use of the “Ginebra” name and trademark since this is just the generic Spanish word for “gin.” On the other hand, San Miguel says its exclusive and continuous use of the word in its branding for its gin product line has made it synonymous with the products and the company.

Both say they are protecting the market. Tanduay says it is protecting consumers’ free choice. Ginebra says it is protecting the market from product confusion since many consumers allegedly mistake Ginebra Kapitan as another Ginebra San Miguel product or variant.

Not that many urban folk drink gin. Our affinity with Ginebra is mostly by way of basketball. We doubt if even the legendary Big J ever guzzled this fiery drink. But the gin war is of great interest to us. This case will have a long-lasting impact on the way commerce will be done in these parts.