CAMPAIGN?: Is former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada already campaigning for the 2010 presidential election?

No, Erap said, he is not. Or maybe he is, but he is too smart to be pinned down for premature campaigning. His sorties in politically strategic areas are billed as mere “pasasalamat” (thank you visits).

He is thanking the masa for keeping faith, for electing to the Senate his wife Loi and son Jinggoy and, according to him, believing in his innocence as he was tried and convicted for plunder.

His sorties are interesting studies in political marketing. We get insights into how politicians prolong their shelf life and navigate in the shoals of Philippine politics.

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NOLI BASE: We do not have to wait for his 71^st birthday next Saturday (April 19) to see how he assiduously courts his beloved masa who dominate the voting registry.

His latest outing was in Oriental Mindoro, in the home ground of Vice President Noli de Castro, one of the likely administration bets in the 2010 presidential derby.

He began in Pola town, some 45 minutes by helicopter from Manila and two hours by road from the capital city of Calapan.

Pola (8,000 voting population) happens to be the birth place of De Castro, whom surveys have placed at the top of a short list of probable presidential candidates.

 But believe it or not, the brother of De Castro ran for Pola mayor in 2007 and lost. His entire ticket down to the councilors was wiped out.

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LANDSLIDE: Pola Mayor Alex Aranas, who is identified with President Gloria Arroyo, was sport enough to welcome Erap and fill the plaza with a crowd of about a thousand.

Erap thanked them for consistently voting for him. In the first election (1987) after the Edsa Revolt, of the 24 who were elected senator, only he and Juan Ponce Enrile were not supported by the popular President Cory Aquino.

He won by a landslide in Pola (and Mindoro) when he ran for Vice President in 1992 and for president in 1998. His wife Loi and his son Jinggoy had topped the senatorial elections in the province. His bosom friend Fernando Poe Jr. also won overwhelmingly in Mindoro in the presidential polls of 2004.

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ELECTRIC: An enthusiastic crowd greeted Erap in Pinamalayan town an hour away. As in Pola, the mayor, also identified with President Arroyo, was active in the welcome.

Even Erap admits that the rousing welcome he gets everywhere surprises him. A seasoned politician, he knows how to read crowds on the campaign trail. He said the people this time were even more enthusiastic than those he saw in his previous campaigns.

In 1998, he said, he sensed that many people went to his rallies more out of curiosity for the matinee idol. This time, he said, he could feel electricity running through the crowd.

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DILEMMA: In Calapan, the crowd in some places was four to five deep along the road.

I heard the thank-you visit was organized by former Gov. C. P. Espiritu. But Rep. Rod Valencia of Kampi, the local kingpin and a friend of Erap, got into the welcome picture. He mobilized some 200 multicabs of supporters for the motorcade.

With whom would Erap go upon his arrival? In local politics, such dilemmas could be disastrous.

Erap joined neither. He rode instead with the mayor, who by accident happened to be an ally of President Arroyo.

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GRADUATION SPEAKER: Erap was also in the Visayas on the last Friday of March as commencement speaker at the University of Iloilo.

An hour earlier, Senate President Manuel Villar was also graduation speaker in another school a few meters away, but the two bigwigs did not run into each other. The crowd, and the media, gravitated to Erap, not to Villar who lacks color however hard he tries.

After the program, Erap, other guests and the hosts repaired to a restaurant. All local politicians worth anything showed up regardless of party affiliation.

Similar graduation exercises had been convenient forums for Erap. Days after his Iloilo engagement, Erap was in Bicol — in Naga, Goa and Iriga – also delivering graduation speeches.

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ONLY 30%: In many of his speeches, Erap advocates a change in the system to minimize corruption and promote transparency in governance.

In Rotary-type forums, when he discusses economic policies, he lays down peace and order as basis for development. No progress is possible, according to him, where there is no peace. He has a hard stance against Muslim secessionists and dissidents.

He believes it was wrong for his successor to have given back to Muslim rebels their camps that the armed forces had captured when he was Commander-in-Chief.

The rice and food problem has crept into his speeches lately. In Mindoro, the rice granary of Southern Luzon, he highlighted the fact that the price of rice on the island is even higher than that in Metro Manila.

Early in his term, he improved national rice production by 6.8 percent by fixing irrigation and offering cash incentives to farmers.

But is Erap running in 2010? In a scale of 1 to 10 where “10” is sure to run and “1” is not running, he said his running is 30 “at the moment.”