NOLI UNSURE: While Speaker Prospero Nograles is not the last word on the administration coalition’s plans for 2010, Vice President Noli de Castro should study very carefully his remarks last week about likely Lakas-CMD presidential and senatorial bets.

The Speaker said De Castro “is a very strong contender (for administration presidential nominee), but I am not discounting the possibility that the leadership might replace him as standard-bearer.”

It is widely held that since elections in this neck of the woods are actually popularity contests, the administration’s best bet is De Castro, who has been topping surveys on favored presidential candidates.

But, as Nograles noted, De Castro cannot be sure he has in the bag the coalition’s nomination for presidential elections that are still two years away.

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REASONS: There are many reasons why De Castro himself may temper his presidential ambition and slide down to being No. 2 again.

1. De Castro knows his own limitations. As most of his colleagues in media know (but do not publicly discuss, in deference to a comrade in arms), he is not that prepared for the exalted position. And it may be too late to cram.

2. De Castro knows that the presidency is a matter of destiny. Even if he runs again (and surely wins) as vice president, he may still succeed to the presidency during his second term if that is what is written in the stars.

3. De Castro knows a good deal when he smells one. A colleague in the Senate with a burning desire to become president might talk him out of the derby to become his running mate. For that “great sacrifice,” the former newsreader could earn millions, maybe even a billion.

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HE CAN RUN: But can the Vice President, who was elected for a six-year term and sworn in at the same time as the President, run for a second term?

Article VII (Executive Department) of the Constitution says: “Section 3. There shall be a Vice President who shall have the same qualifications and term of office and be elected with, and in the same manner, as the President.

“Section 4. The President and the Vice President shall be elected by direct vote of the people for a term of six years which shall begin at noon on the thirtieth day of June next following the day of the election and shall end at noon of the same date, six years thereafter. The President shall not be eligible for any re-election….

“No Vice President shall serve for more than two successive terms….”

While the Charter bars the President from “any reelection,” it merely says that the Vice President “shall (not) serve for more than two successive terms.” This means that he — De Castro — can serve for two successive terms.

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BONG’S BID: This calls to mind a recent announcement, from out of the blue, of Sen. Bong Revilla that he would vie for the administration coalition’s nomination for vice president in 2010.

If he does, what happens to De Castro’s possibly seeking reelection? No problem. Revilla said he would defer to the Vice President, who enjoys the oft-invoked unwritten rule of “the equity of the incumbent.”

Do not be surprised if, when Revilla the pretender steps aside for De Castro, the senator from Cavite could reap not a few concessions, some of them conceivably in legal tender.

(Pardon my mentioning money possibly changing hands. As Batangueño broadcaster Rene Sta. Cruz of dzBB says, Philippine politics revolves around “KAPE” – which is not really coffee as in “barako,” but simply “KApangyarihan” at “PEra.” [power and pelf]).

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OTHER NAMES: Also mentioned as presidential materials are Mayor Sonny Belmonte who has transformed Quezon City into the best administered, most progressive and richest city in the country, and chairman Bayani Fernando of the Metro Manila Development Authority.

Although he was not mentioned, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro is a non-trapo (traditional politician) to watch. Observe the way he carries himself, responds to media questions and critical situations, and peruse his bio-data.

Revilla was mentioned by Nograles as among the frontrunners in the administration’s list-up of senatorial nominees – again for reason of equity of the incumbent, not really because he is eminently qualified.

Of course, on top of the senatorial heap is the President’s eldest son, Rep. Mikey Arroyo of Pampanga who has emerged from nowhere into the lead pack even before he could do something really significant for his province and the country.

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POLL LESSON: In mentioning Revilla, the Speaker also said Sen. Lito Lapid is sure to have a slot in the 12-man administration ticket, also by reason of the equity of the incumbent.

Who so? It is unfair that senators who run for another office are not deemed resigned and can go back to the Senate if they lose their bid.

It seems it has not dawned on politicians that people have grown tired of movie stars, comedians and acrobats forcing themselves onto center stage as public officials.

It was not just popularity that enabled these characters to win public office.  In a desperate search for leaders and heroes, the people were willing to experiment even with clowns and movie stars.

But having seen that popularity is no guarantee of good performance in office, the people rejected most of the movie stars and media personalities who ran in the last elections.

Lapid who ran for Makati mayor was one of the showbiz personalities rejected by the electorate. He and his ilk should see the signs.