NO CHOICE: It is not easy for a small nation like the Philippines to defend mineral-rich islands within its Exclusive Economic Zone off Palawan from an expansionist China flexing its military muscle in the area.

A pygmy compared to the fire-breathing Chinese dragon, the Philippines has been forced to seek aid and comfort in the waiting arms of the United States, its Mutual Defense Treaty partner since 1951.

In this predicament, Malacañang may be forgiven by proud Filipinos for seeming to play into hands of Uncle Sam that is actually more concerned with its own geo-political game with China, its biggest creditor and a major trading partner.

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READY TO FIGHT?: It is remarkable that the US is suddenly making explicit statements professing readiness to come to the defense of the Philippines if conflicting claims over some islands in its territorial waters explode into armed hostilities.

All levels of the US government, from the White House to the State department, to the treaty-ratifying Senate, were suddenly singing a chorus saying in effect that Americans will stand by their Filipino friends.

This official behavior is quite unusual — even suspicious to some observers.

The stockpile of surplus materiel of the US military has been opened, ukay-ukay-style, to the armed forces of the Philippines. The AFP has started drawing up a shopping list, at bargain prices, of what it needs to stand up against a hypothetical Chinese aggressor.

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POWER POKER: Now news is coming out from Washington that the US was preparing all the while for top-level talks with China on a broad spectrum of issues, presumably including territorial disputes disturbing the peace in the South China Sea (aka West Philippine Sea).

Maybe it was coincidental that Washington had just put its client Manila in its pocket as a possible card in its power poker game with Beijing.

It is not clear how Vietnam, also a claimant of some islands in the disputed area, is to be played. Hanoi is not as easy to manipulate as Manila.

It will be interesting to watch Malacañang’s next moves after the US has lulled it into a false sense of security.

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NO WAR COMING: This early, the end-game is already getting clearer: China and its big-time debtor the US, the real key players in this land-grabbing case, will not allow war to break out.

The Philippines will simply have to accept the fact that both China and the US are not ready or willing to bomb each other.

The Philippines will have to accept also that its Mutual Defense Treaty with the US is mentioned now and then merely to hypnotize Filipinos into thinking that Americans are ready to fight and die for this former colony.

In its present form, that treaty is too vague and unwieldy to be the rationale for a US attack on, say China, in case Chinese forces fire at Filipinos, civilian or military, on the disputed islands.

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TREATY TEXT: At this point, it is wise to go to the text – before speculating on the spirit – of the MDT signed in August 1951.

Article III says: “The Parties… will consult together… whenever in the opinion of either of them the territorial integrity, political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack in the Pacific.”

Article IV: “Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”

Article V: “… an armed attack on either of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the Parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.”

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WHO DECLARES WAR?: We should understand that only an actual attack, possibly in the nature of an invasion, of the Philippines would trigger an instant armed retaliation by the US – unless US forces in the country are the ones hit or targeted.

Even the adjective “instant” may not apply since Article IV says that such warlike acts shall be “in accordance with its (US) constitutional processes.”

Under the US Constitution, only the Congress has the power to “declare war” or to declare that a state of war exists between the US and another.

The US has formally declared war on five instances, each on request by the US President, in many of those cases after hostilities had already begun.

But there had been times when a formal declaration by the Congress was not sought – only an “authorization” to engage in war was given. The appropriation of money for war activities could be deemed also as an authorization – even without a formal declaration of war.

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NO WAR COMING: This still unsettled debate over sending US forces to fight a foreign war highlights the fact that the complicated “constitutional processes” mentioned in the treaty could be used to delay or prevent the involvement of US forces in a place like the Philippines.

If only for this, Filipinos should not fall too easy for US assurances that seem to promise instant American counterattack in case Filipinos are shot at by, say, Chinese intruders.

As can be seen now, such a warlike scenario is being prevented from unfolding. The US and China are talking to see how they can protect their respective interests without losing face.